Weather · grids · space
Echofold builds evidence-backed forecasting and engineering decision-support products with transparent provenance and human review at the point of action.
Mission operations and dynamics assuranceManaged delivery. Benchmarks, prospective validation, and pilot engagements are scoped with explicit evidence and decision boundaries.
Product families
Each product is offered as a managed engagement today, with maturity and authorization boundaries kept visible as the stack expands.
Weather + grid intelligence
A managed weather-intelligence family spanning short-window hazard nowcasting, revision-aware long forecasts, and Texas grid wind forecasts.
Space-weather decisions
A human-reviewed space-weather stack connecting solar-eruption probabilities, geomagnetic onset and lifecycle estimates, ionosphere disturbance ranking, and operations review.
Mission environment + dynamics
Traceable mission-environment and dynamics-assurance workflows for planning, screening, numerical cross-checking, and operator review.
Weather + grid intelligence
EarthWeather combines independently evidenced Short-Window Nowcast, Long Forecast, and Wind Intelligence products under shared issue-time provenance and immutable issuance controls. Their targets, comparators, and evidence denominators remain separate.
Applicable toWeather-sensitive planning, renewable-generation analysis, operational awareness, infrastructure review, and research.
Primary launch deliverableStandardized hourly, versioned ERCOT system and five-region wind forecasts, with separately scoped short-window and long-range weather intelligence.
Each surface is offered through a managed benchmark or prospective validation; live availability and latency are established before operational use.
Space-weather decision support
StormShield connects probabilistic solar-eruption monitoring, geomagnetic onset and intensity, episode lifecycle and recovery, site-level ionosphere disturbance ranking, and satellite-operations review in one traceable workflow.
Designed forSatellite operators, GNSS-dependent operations, and grid teams reviewing space-weather risk.
Managed deliverableTraceable, human-reviewed space-weather issue packages with source and decision provenance.
StormShield complements official space-weather services and supports human-reviewed operational decisions.
Mission environment + dynamics assurance
MissionControl turns verified environmental advisories, approved asset profiles, planned operations, reference propagation, and difficult dynamics cases into traceable operator-review workflows.
Designed forMission-planning and engineering teams reviewing difficult environment and dynamics cases.
Managed deliverableReproducible environmental and dynamics-assurance review with operator-facing evidence.
MissionControl supports engineering review while retaining operator authorization for flight decisions.
Product structure + evidence
The parent panels show how each product family operates. The cards below them report selected, non-pooled results with a named target, comparator, sample, evidence status, and scope.
EarthWeather platform
Short-Window Nowcast, Long Forecast, and Wind Intelligence belong to one managed product family without borrowing performance from one another.
Shared control layer · forecast-available inputs · issue-time provenance · immutable versioning
f01, f03, and f06 hazard probability.
f01–f48 multi-hazard planning priority.
ERCOT system and five-region wind generation.
Target-specific delivery · separate comparators · independently scored evidence
Platform scopeThe platform provides common provenance and engagement controls. Each surface retains its own target, model authority, comparator, denominator, and promotion status.
EarthWeather / component evidence
Selected non-pooled evaluation recordsTexas grid wind intelligence
29.25% / 27.37% lower f01 / f03 system MAE
f01: 865.07 versus 1,222.66 MW. f03: 1,118.01 versus 1,539.37 MW.
Scopef03 is the primary commercial forecast and f01 the secondary near-term view; system and five-region outputs are available.
Supported-source route
14.39% lower Brier error
0.029753 versus 0.034752, with lower date-level error on 57 of 60 dates.
ScopeEvery scored row had GOES ABI or HREF-family support. A separate source-timed replication spans 125 dates; denominators are not pooled.
Established-source route
44.51% lower Brier error
0.130864 versus 0.235834 on the same frozen surface, with 0.8160 AUC.
ScopeThe current source-aware router preserves this result exactly when both dedicated source families are unavailable.
Multi-hazard planning forecast
48.61% Brier skill for planning-window priority
0.105981 Brier error versus 0.206238 on the same frozen case-lead surface.
ScopePrioritizes act, review, or watch queues as qualifying forecast issues update; prospective absolute-location delivery is validated separately.
HRRR-derived controls are EarthWeather-built probability translations of NOAA HRRR forecast fields. They are not probabilities issued by NOAA. Results use separate, non-pooled evaluation populations and are not directly comparable.
StormShield platform
StormTrigger is one upstream component. StormShield adds geomagnetic routing, native Hp intensity, explicit episode state, lifecycle and recovery, and downstream impact review.
Source-qualified solar, CME/ENLIL, solar-wind, Kp, and Hp state
Solar-event and geomagnetic-entry probability.
Short-cadence escalation from 30 to 360 minutes.
Survival, duration, recovery, all-clear, and reset.
Site ranking, satellite review, and BES context.
Human-reviewed release · immutable issue package · Satellite Ops and MissionControl handoff
Platform scopeThe episode controller assigns authority by state and horizon; it does not average incompatible probabilities. Outputs fail closed when required provenance or freshness is unavailable.
StormShield / component evidence
Four selected, non-pooled evaluationsGeomagnetic onset + intensity
11.7% / 10.4% lower Hp30 / Hp60 onset Brier
Average precision improved in every independently fitted onset cell on the final holdout.
ScopeThe frozen router promotes replicated cells and retains the reference where a challenger did not qualify.
Persistence + recovery
0 / 85 premature formal all-clears
Survival and recovery Brier error improved at every authorized horizon in both evaluation periods.
ScopeConditional active-episode decision support; it does not independently declare initial storm onset or automate control.
Measured ionosphere disturbance
0.8863 AP next-hour ROTI disturbance ranking
Versus 0.8017 for a WAM-IPE WRS +1h translation and 0.8157 for a lagged GloTEC translation.
ScopeUncalibrated next-hour ranking score; probability calibration and receiver-integrity authorization are separate outputs.
Solar-eruption probability
0.49–7.54% lower Brier error across four horizons
Average precision also improved at 1, 6, 12, and 24 hours; grouped lower 95% bounds cleared zero for both metrics.
ScopeProbabilistic onset performance; customer-watch and alert operating points are evaluated and authorized separately.
Evidence reviewed August 2026. Results shown are from defined, frozen historical evaluations. Live availability, latency, and authorized use are established through prospective managed validation. Detailed regional, routing, model, and statistical evidence is reserved for qualified technical diligence under appropriate confidentiality.
How engagements progress
Lock the target, comparator, scoring rules, and historical scope before results are reviewed.
Freeze issue-time outputs and evaluate availability, latency, and performance on forward data.
Define delivery, authorized use, monitoring, and human decision controls for the operating environment.
Pre-valid access and operational-use rights are separately scoped and licensed.
Deliberate expansion
CycleHorizon and GIC workflows remain visibly labeled as prospective shadow or partner-validation modules.
Regime-aware three-body and N-body work extends managed screening and numerical review—not autonomous navigation.
Licensed or customer-supplied photometry can support reproducible lensing-model comparison without implying discovery confirmation.
Echofold
Echofold develops forecasting and engineering decision-support systems for environments where provenance, issue-time integrity, and explicit human authorization matter.
The launch site is intentionally focused. Detailed methods, customer data exchange, and delivery credentials move through a scoped engagement—not a public upload form or open API.
Start a focused conversation
For a managed benchmark, prospective validation, or product-fit discussion:
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